The rise and fall of civilisations

Friday-weekend blog

In 1978, former British officer, commander of the Jordan Arab Legion and historian, Sir John Glubb published an essay: The Fate of Empires. His key message was that: “The life histories of great states are amazingly similar.” The essay sketched out a proposed trajectory for the rise and fall of civilisations:

• The Age of Pioneers: expansion of territory
• The Age of Conquests: more expansion, not always peaceably
• The Age of Commerce: wealth is created through trade and innovation
• The Age of Affluence: all appears to be well, but the seeds of destruction are being sown
• The Age of Intellect: the acquired affluence enables people to pursue the life of the mind. Academic institutions may produce sceptical intellectuals who start to question the dominant narratives of the empire, undermining its authority
• The Age of Decadence: people indulge in excessive consumption in the pursuit of happiness, while in actuality becoming less happy. The civilisation creates diversions for the populace, from gladiator fights to Facebook and Instagram, while people indulge in addiction and debauchery. The values and discipline that enabled the creation of the empire are eroded

Of course, not all civilisations will follow exactly this process. But if you accept its general principles, then the key question must be ‘at what stage is Western civilisation?’ Fortunately, Sir John helpfully provides some clues in a section he wrote about the welfare state. The key part for me is in the last two sentences which I have highlighted in bold. We may consider that we have reached a high point in civilisation when the state can be so generous to millions who feel they deserve to be supported by others. But when the majority of people in a country demand ever more free stuff paid for by someone else and open borders encourage millions from the world’s worst, most backward, most deservedly violence- and poverty-stricken hell-holes (the overwhelming majority of whom lack either the education or the inclination to contribute anything) to migrate to that country in search of an easy life enjoying the freedom to rape as many underage girls as they like while living off benefits and crime, then bankruptcy and collapse are the only possible outcomes.

Here’s what Sir John wrote:

“When the welfare state was first introduced in Britain, it was hailed as a new high-water in the history of human development. History, however, seems to suggest that the age of decline of a great nation is often a period which shows a tendency to philanthropy and to sympathy for other races. This phase may not be contradictory to the feeling described in the previous paragraph, that the dominant race has the right to rule the world. For the citizens of the great nation enjoy the role of Lady Bountiful.”

“As long as it retains its status of leadership, the imperial people are glad to be generous, even if slightly condescending. The rights of citizenship are generously bestowed on every race, even those formerly subject, and the equality of mankind is proclaimed. The Roman Empire passed through this phase, when equal citizenship was thrown open to all peoples, such provincials even becoming senators and emperors. The Arab Empire of Baghdad was equally, perhaps even more, generous. During the Age of Conquests, pure-bred Arabs had constituted a ruling class, but in the ninth century the empire was completely cosmopolitan.”

“State assistance to the young and the poor was equally generous. University students received government grants to cover their expenses while they were receiving higher education. The State likewise offered free medical treatment to the poor. The first free public hospital was opened in Baghdad in the reign of Harun al-Rashid (786-809), and under his son, Mamun, free public hospitals sprang up all over the Arab world from Spain to what is now Pakistan.”

“The impression that it will always be automatically rich causes the declining empire to spend lavishly on its own benevolence, until such time as the economy collapses, the universities are closed and the hospitals fall into ruin. It may perhaps be incorrect to picture the welfare state as the high-water mark of human attainment. It may merely prove to be one more regular milestone in the lifestory of an ageing and decrepit empire.”