weekend blog
I have just come across what may be the most idiotic climate-change article of the year so far – a Euronews article claiming that climate change is triggering an increasing number of earthquakes:
It’s almost worth reading the article to understand how deranged the climate catastrophists are becoming.
The author claims that: ‘As melting glaciers change the distribution of weight across the Earth�s crust, the resulting “glacial isostatic adjustment” drives changes in plate tectonics�that could lead to more earthquakes,�awaken volcanoes and even affect the movement of the Earth�s axis.’
The author goes on to say: ‘Unfortunately, it is not just earthquakes. Climate and weather-related disasters�have surged five-fold�over the past five decades, killing over two million people, with 91% of the casualties in developing countries. And it is only getting worse.’
And the author concludes by blaming ‘Big Oil’: ‘Fossil fuel companies bear significant responsibility for the climate emergency yet enjoy near-total impunity. At the same time, they are consistently reaping record profits � while ordinary citizens across the globe struggle to pay their household bills.’
Nonsense on stilts?
Let’s try to deal with these three claims.
Melting glaciers causing earthquakes?
The eminent ‘expert’ claims that “melting glaciers change the distribution of weight across the Earth�s crust”. But I could equally well claim that the more glaciers there are, the heavier the weight on the Earth’s tectonic plates and therefore fewer glaciers will mean less weight on the tectonic plates. Moreover, the big glacier melt happened between 16,000 and 6,000 years ago when sea levels rose about 120 metres (120 cms per 100 years) compared to today’s rise of between 7cms and 20 cms per century (depending on whose figures you believe):
Of course, we don’t know how many earthquakes there were per year between 16,000 and 6,000 years ago. But given the relatively minor sea-level rise over the last century one might be tempted to doubt that melting glaciers really are causing the Earth’s tectonic nervous breakdown
Climate and weather disasters are getting worse?
Oddly, the figures tell us the exact opposite. In the last century climate-related deaths have fallen by over 90% even as atmospheric CO2 has risen from 300 parts per million to around 420 parts per million:
Here’s a chart of the main natural disaster deaths from 1900 to 2016:
And here’s another one:
‘Big Oil’ is to blame for the ‘climate emergency’
First of all, there is no climate emergency. In fact, as I explain in my book THERE IS NO CLIMATE CRISIS, we’ve never had it so good.
Extreme poverty has fallen dramatically:
Until, the Chinese lab-leaked plague, fife expectancy around the world was rising:
And crop yields were continuously increasing:
And most of these improvements in the human condition have been mainly due to the availability of cheap, reliable fossil-fuel energy and fossil-fuel products
But I guess the moral of the story is that you can get any old rubbish published as long as you blame climate change.
What about earthquakes?
Here’s a mapping of the main earthquake zones which, of course follow the tectonic plates:
To fully understand if earthquakes are increasing you’d have to analyse all earthquakes each year and then maybe multiply each one by its severity on the Richter scale to give an approximation of each year’s seismic activity.
I’ve neither the time nor the inclination to do this. But I had a quick check on the 20 worst earthquakes in modern times and found that there seem to be clusters. There were 3 major earthquakes in the 1960s and 7 since the year 2000. So, looking just at recent history, it would be correct to sat there has been a rise in major earthquakes. But I humbly suggest this has absolutely nothing to do with supposed anthropogenic climate change:
Rank | Name | Magnitude | Location | Date (Y-M-D) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Valdivia Earthquake | 9.5 | Bio-Bio, Chile | 1960-05-22 |
2 | Good Friday Earthquake | 9.2 | Alaska, U.S. | 1964-03-28 |
3 | 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake | 9.1 | Sumatra, Indonesia | 2004-12-26 |
4 | Tohoku Earthquake | 9.1 | Honshu, Japan | 2011-03-11 |
5 | 1952 Severo-Kurilsk Earthquake | 9.0 | Kamchatka, Russia | 1952-11-04 |
6 | Maule Earthquake | 8.8 | Bio-Bio, Chile | 2010-02-27 |
7 | 1906 Ecuador�Colombia Earthquake | 8.8 | Ecuador | 1906-01-31 |
8 | Rat Islands Earthquake | 8.7 | Alaska, U.S. | 1965-02-04 |
9 | Assam-Tibet Earthquake | 8.6 | Assam, Tibet | 1950-08-15 |
10 | 2012 Indian Ocean Earthquake | 8.6 | Sumatra, Indonesia | 2012-04-11 |
11 | Nias Earthquake | 8.6 | Sumatra, Indonesia | 2005-03-28 |
12 | 1957 Andreanof Islands Earthquake | 8.6 | Alaska, U.S. | 1957-03-09 |
13 | Unimak Island Earthquake, Alaska | 8.6 | Alaska, U.S. | 1946-04-01 |
14 | 1938 Banda Sea Earthquake | 8.5 | Banda Sea | 1938-02-01 |
15 | 1922 Vallenar Earthquake | 8.5 | Chile-Argentina Border | 1922-11-11 |
16 | 1963 Kuril Islands Earthquake | 8.5 | Kuril Islands, Russia | 1963-10-13 |
17 | 1923 Kamchatka Earthquake | 8.4 | Kamchatka, Russia | 1923-02-03 |
18 | September 2007 Sumatra Earthquakes | 8.4 | Sumatra, Indonesia | 2007-09-12 |
19 | Peru Earthquake | 8.4 | Southern Peru | 2001-06-23 |
20 | 1933 Sanriku Earthquake | 8.4 | Honshu, Japan | 1933-03-02 |
Perhaps a clue to why we are reading this is that the professor who wrote the article is an ecologist and a UN adviser. It just makes statements without any justification. IF oil companies are working … THEN earthquake will happen. There it is again. Why not a geologist writing about this?
My understanding of earthquakes is that they are due to friction between the tectonic plates and it is when they are not able to move that forces build up which then cause earthquakes. I suppose melting glaciers will reduce the force and allow movement but on the other hand, they melt slowly so they could allow movement to gradually take place. The melting ice that covered a lot of the northern hemisphere during the last ice age didn’t seem to cause much of a problem and the land has been slowly rising after the ice melted.
It is interesting that the professor is Turkish but he did not say anything about buildings going up that do not comply with the government regulations and builders are allowed to pay not to comply. This was covered in a TV documentary last week, which also said that 75,000 new buildings do not comply with the regulations. I did download an article that claimed that it is possible to predict earthquakes more accurately but haven’t had time to read it yet. I haven’t seen anything about monitoring in Turkey.
I think one reason why natural disasters are said to be increasing is that they are assessed on the damage that is caused and but no account is taken of the increase in the number of people and buildings in these areas. As you point out it must be assessed on the severity of the earthquake and where is that discussed in the article? The claimed earthquakes due to fracking are mostly so small that they are only detected by instrumentation – another activity where the truth does not matter
Took them long enough, my immediate thought on hearing about the earthquakes was �this will be blamed on climate change�. I�ve been quite surprised that it was an immediate headline.
Sorry that should have said �NOT an immediate headline�
Their ignorance knows no bounds.Not even worth debating with these loons,not that they will ever risk debate.Whilst accepting our knowledge about plate tectonics is at a relativel early phase,it only becoming mainstream around the late 1960’s, the hypotheses expounded are mere conjecture and not based upon any established scientific investigation.
Very good article. Thank you.