David Craig, on January 24th, 2022Monday/Tuesday blog
Statistical nonsense from our lockdown fanatics?
You’ll all know that the figures used by the recently honoured Twins of Doom – Vallance and Whitty – regarding lab-leaked Chinese plague deaths are complete nonsense. This is because they include anyone who has died within 28 days of a positive Chinese plague test. So, if you have a heart attack, stroke or car accident and die in hospital having also tested positive for the Chinese lab-leaked plague, you’re counted in the “deaths with Covid” figures even if your death had nothing to do with Covid. This has allowed the Government and supinely obedient media to conduct their Project Fear campaign claiming Covid deaths of over 150,000 to bludgeon us into cowering in terror in our homes while they partied.
GB News’s Freedom of Information request
While almost all the media have screamed for more lockdowns and faster lockdowns and more restrictions, GB News is probably the only media which has dared question the garbage being spewed out by the Government, the Twins of Doom and their sycophantic supporters in the rest of the media.
You probably also know that GB News made a Freedom of Information request to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) asking how many people had died where Covid was the only cause mentioned on the death certificate. The answer was not anywhere near Whitty’s and Valance’s 150,000+ deaths. The answer was just 17,371 over the two years of the Chinese lab-leaked plague. To put this 17,371 into some context, it is estimated that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu just in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19 – with the yearly deaths varying widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 3,966 in 2018/19. Moreover, the deaths from Covid over two years are about the same level as the 9,700 or so who die prematurely each winter because they cannot afford to heat their homes properly.
Which is it? 17,371 or 153,000?
So, how do we find the real figure for Chinese lab-leaked plague deaths? The 17,371 only includes deaths where Covid was stated as the only cause. But there may be many other cases where people with comorbidities kicked the bucket slightly earlier than expected thanks to Xi Pingpong, enthusiastically assisted by the lying scum at the pathetically misnamed, Chinese-run World Health Organisation (WHO), unleashing the lab-leaked plague on the world.
Perhaps this ONS website gets us nearer the answer?
It lists deaths and death rates for England and Wales over the last 30 years.
The key column is the one on your right – the age-standardised mortality rate. This adjusts the death rates for both population size and for age difference.
As you can see, the age-standardised mortality rate in the 18 years from 1990 to 2008 was higher than during the first year of the Chinese plague (2020). After 2008, the age-standardised mortality rate seems to have been on a downward trend reaching a record low in 2019. Then in 2020 there was clearly an increase we can ascribe to Xi’s and the WHO’s magnificent efforts to practise ways of wiping out mankind.
| Year | Number of deaths |
Population (Thousands) |
Crude mortality rate (per 100,000 population) |
Age-standardised mortality rate (per 100,000 population) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 608,002 | 59,829 | 1,016.20 | 1,043.50 |
| 2019 | 530,841 | 59,440 | 893.1 | 925 |
| 2018 | 541,589 | 59,116 | 916.1 | 965.4 |
| 2017 | 533,253 | 58,745 | 907.7 | 965.3 |
| 2016 | 525,048 | 58,381 | 899.3 | 966.9 |
| 2015 | 529,655 | 57,885 | 915 | 993.2 |
| 2014 | 501,424 | 57,409 | 873.4 | 953 |
| 2013 | 506,790 | 56,948 | 889.9 | 985.9 |
| 2012 | 499,331 | 56,568 | 882.7 | 987.4 |
| 2011 | 484,367 | 56,171 | 862.3 | 978.6 |
| 2010 | 493,242 | 55,692 | 885.7 | 1,017.10 |
| 2009 | 491,348 | 55,235 | 889.6 | 1,033.80 |
| 2008 | 509,090 | 54,842 | 928.3 | 1,091.90 |
| 2007 | 504,052 | 54,387 | 926.8 | 1,091.80 |
| 2006 | 502,599 | 53,951 | 931.6 | 1,104.30 |
| 2005 | 512,993 | 53,575 | 957.5 | 1,143.80 |
| 2004 | 514,250 | 53,152 | 967.5 | 1,163.00 |
| 2003 | 539,151 | 52,863 | 1,019.90 | 1,232.10 |
| 2002 | 535,356 | 52,602 | 1,017.70 | 1,231.30 |
| 2001 | 532,498 | 52,360 | 1,017.00 | 1,236.20 |
| 2000 | 537,877 | 52,140 | 1,031.60 | 1,266.40 |
| 1999 | 553,532 | 51,933 | 1,065.80 | 1,320.20 |
| 1998 | 553,435 | 51,720 | 1,070.10 | 1,327.20 |
| 1997 | 558,052 | 51,560 | 1,082.30 | 1,350.80 |
| 1996 | 563,007 | 51,410 | 1,095.10 | 1,372.50 |
| 1995 | 565,902 | 51,272 | 1,103.70 | 1,392.00 |
| 1994 | 551,780 | 51,116 | 1,079.50 | 1,374.90 |
| 1993 | 578,512 | 50,986 | 1,134.70 | 1,453.40 |
| 1992 | 558,313 | 50,876 | 1,097.40 | 1,415.00 |
| 1991 | 570,044 | 50,748 | 1,123.30 | 1,464.30 |
| 1990 | 564,846 | 50,561 | 1,117.20 | 1,462.60 |
I suspect that the falling age-standardised mortality rate until Covid is due to things like improved medical care and a decrease in smoking since the 1960s.
Just eyeballing these figures suggests that the increased number of deaths either fully due to Covid or slightly hastened due to Covid may be around 60,000 to 70,000 – fewer than half the number used by the Government and the Twins of Doom.
This might mean that the the age-standardised mortality rate might fall during the next couple of years as thousands who would have died anyway from comorbidities chose to leave us slightly earlier than they otherwise would have done thanks to the WuFlu. The figures I’ve seen for the last 4 months of 2021 suggest that the death rate was below the average for the 5 years prior to Covid which seems to confirm that many of the 60,000 to 70,000 would have departed this planet in 2021 if it hadn’t been for Covid.
On the other hand, the complete collapse of the NHS, which (as we all know) is the envy of the world, might mean that the failure to diagnose and treat people with life-threatening conditions may increase death rates for the next few years?
Was it all worth it?
I can understand that the Government and the supposed ‘experts’ panicked at the end of 2019 as they saw people dying of asphyxiation from a hitherto unknown disease in the corridors of Italian hospitals. But what is unforgivable is the Government and ‘experts’ then launching Project Fear using death rates “with Covid” which they knew were complete statistical nonsense to create an Orwellian state depriving us of our liberties, locking us in our homes and forcing us to wear dehumanising masks while small businesses were crushed and big companies, chums of Tory politicians and the rich make an absolute killing.
I saw this comment by a Daily Telegraph reader: “During 2020, I was living next door to a Coop funeral home. They had only 2 clients and eventually CLOSED! Make of that what you will”.
And here’s the magnificent Neil Oliver from GB News asking whether the panic and lockdowns were really necessary:
Category: 
Well done GB News i was not aware they lodged the FOI but have seen their reports across the past week.
There is still further light to shed on this fraud. These questions remain answered:
1. How many of those dying from covid were seen by a doctor let alone two doctors. The rules are changed to permit covid as cause of death without examination. Were they really covid or just old age?
2. Strangely coincidently there has been no flu deaths over the last couple of years. A cynic would say this is because all those that usually die from flu are now reclassified as covid. The government prefers to tell us we have been lucky that flu has been mild these last couple of years.
3. The pcr has been misused in several ways. It apparently cannot distinguish between regular flu and the fauci flu. Even fauci says they are useless above 30 cycles but we are happily running them up to 50ct. The mean count even at peak was over 25 which suggests the majority had a mild case and would have recovered quickly.
4. The completely blinkered approach to vaccination. There was only ever one solution and that was vaccination backed by powerful corporate interests. Therapeutics ignored and early preventative actions not only ignored but actively refused.
I am sure i’ve missed a few but for most people this fraud was obvious from about April 2020 when the excess deaths came no way near the projections.
You forgot to mention the extraordinary campaign launched by the mainstream media against the cheap (out of patent) Ivermectin denigrating it as a ‘horse dewormer’ even though over 3 billion treatments have been used on humans. I guess Ivermectin wasn’t profitable enough for Big Pharma
We seem to be driving ourselves crazy about knowing what people die from. The first question now is was it Covid. I checked on obesity related deaths and there were about 31,000 last year. Shouldn’t we be more concerned about deaths and other illnesses we have that are lifestyle related and which we can do something about? You mention deaths from cold and twi5ted raises other issues. Everything related to covid is without reference to other issues.
How do we know we can trust the FOI request data on deaths?
We must be careful about interpreting statistics and I put my trust in Prof Norman Fenton. He disagrees with Spiegelhalter so how are we to understand it? Fenton is saying that the data is so corrupted and biased that it is almost impossible to make any conclusion. In terms of deaths he concluded only that there is no evidence that the benefits of the vaccines outweigh the risks. I am not aware that he has said anything about covid only deaths because he doesn’t trust the data.
Fenton found what he calls a strange peak in non-covid deaths in the unvaccinated shortly after vaccine rollout, which makes no sense. Since there are risks with the vaccines there might be an increase in deaths of the vaccinated. What do we make of that? There are even problems with the total population. The ONS and the UKHSA calculate it in different ways so the data they present is different. Look at the population data in the ONS table – is the UK population in 2020 only 60m? The ONS uses the 2011 census data for the population so anybody under 10 is not included. Even short delays in reporting deaths has an influence on interpreting the data which Fenton has shown. Fenton found one set of data had a population of 39m.
We are looking at statistics and there is a range of deaths in any year that would be considered acceptable but I have never seen any details about this. I also read, which seems obvious, that when you get a period of decreasing deaths then there is an ageing population effectively waiting at deaths door and so there will be an increase at some point. It might be what we see in 2020 after years of very low deaths. 2021 might be more confusing when we get the data because there will be deaths due to other treatments not being available.
Can anybody look at the table above and find the past years where we supposedly had a pandemic?
The population figures in the table are for England and Wales which I should have realised. But it raises the issue of the 17,000 covid deaths. Were they for the UK or England and Wales?
Dan Wootton has just at 9 p.m.repeated the figure of 17,000 plus deaths, stating that it applies to the UK – presumably England, Wales & Scotland. N. Ireland too perhaps? Relatively unimportant anyway in the context of the outrageous “oversell” of covid deaths which has been perpetrated on the UK population for almost 2 years. I recall stating during the first lockdown, in response to a blog on this page, that if any government wished to run an experiment to discover just how easily an entire population of around 65,000,000 people could be subjugated by fear into submission to almost any regulation, however outrageous, then that government had achieved resounding success. The recently revealed behaviour of Boris Johnson and the entire Downing Street cohort during the first lockdown demonstrates conclusively that they KNEW, even while they were preaching their doctrine of imminent death to us on a daily basis, that the basically healthy majority had no more to fear from covid than from a bout of seasonal ‘flu. As a retired, self-reliant person accustomed to living alone and in good health, to me the lockdown was not much more than an annoying inconvenience. I do feel bitter though about the time I missed with my children and grandchildren, time which can never be recovered but which we all endured because we believed what we were being told. But had I been the spouse or the parent or the offspring of someone dying in hospital, whom I was unable to visit and whose funeral I was forbidden to attend, I would be speechless with rage. Every single citizen who was fined for “contravening covid regulations” after being nabbed by plod when sitting on the grass in a park drinking a coffee, parking up in a quiet location to eat a sandwich, walking too far from home, leaving home more than once a day, even driving to make a clandestine visit to a parent or lover or friend, should have their fine reimbursed, with an accompanying fulsome letter of apology from Boris Johnson. Boris has behaved outrageously, but right now there is no one anywhere near fit to replace him. If he wishes to hold on to his position he should come clean, admit he got it wrong, shove (justifiably) a good bit of the blame onto the two doom merchants who were his daily press conference props, and while he’s about it a big dose more to the Priapic Imperial Professor and his ludicrous overestimates of death, instruct the police immediately to reimburse all covid-related fines, order all academic institutions to withdraw any lingering requirements to students to muzzle, tell retailers to remove the ridiculous plastic screens which sprung up overnight like malign monsters, order Civil Servants to return to the office, where they might actually do some work at last, (I have the appalling DVLA particularly in mind) and finally – but not least – get off Princess Nut Nut’s Zero Carbon high horse! The Boris we’ve experienced for most of the last 2 years is not the Boris we elected. We knew we were getting a bit of a mountibank, a bit of a con man perhaps, but we did believe he had a brain, quite a good one, and that precisely because he was out of the usual politician’s mould, he might actually get stuff done. Apart from Brexit – which isn’t yet the Brexit most of us thought it would be – he’s been a gigantic disappointment. He’s hanging on in the Last Chance Saloon, but it’s almost closing time and he’d better get his act together if he doesn’t want to be kicked out any moment.
I think Stillreading is spot on with his comment. The 17,000 figure is relatively unimportant. It is the government’s response to Covid that really matters and the consequences that they did not consider.
I came back to this because I saw a Sky News item about it from an academic at Sheffield university who is said to have ‘debunked’ the 17,000 claim. Here is a link
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-latest-live-updates-plan-b-coronavirus-restrictions-ending-omicron-12507015?postid=3263538#liveblog-body
but you will have to search for the item on the page. He is not saying the figure is wrong, but that it is unfair to people who have other illnesses and have died with it
According to Sky the 17,000 applies to England and Wales. There is no age breakdown, so are these fit younger people, and how many had been vaccinated and was that a factor? Were autopsies carried out to ensure that there were no undetected illnesses? Perhaps more importantly, how does covid by itself cause death? My understanding of deaths from respiratory illness is that it is not covid or flu that is the cause of death, it is our reaction to dealing with it that causes pneumonia. Why don’t we have a more effective treatment for pneumonia. I had a vaccination for pneumonia. Does that help? The 17,000 raises more questions than it answers.
Some people are saying that Covid is no worse than a bad flu year. What do they mean? Are the talking about deaths, and hospitalisations, and what age groups? The details matter. Where in the table of deaths can a bad flu year be detected? Not one, until 1918.
From Thursday we need to get back to living and have no more constraints on our freedom, plus an end to mandated vaccinations. This is the important issue now. I would also like to know how the government lost £4.3bn to covid fraud. The government is our biggest danger, we need a way to hold these idiots to account. The problem with Boris is that there is no obvious replacement or even a replacement party.
I am concerned that the NHS starts treating non-covid patients again. I have struggled through the telephone guardians that limit access to GPs, only to be faced with long waits for tests at not busy hospitals, coupled with ‘alternative’ assessments by physios who go through exercise programmes available online without further investigation. there has been very little improvement in the problems I have, meaning my mobility is very limited. I am considering going private for treatment that gets me back to normal as it seems as if the NHS is no longer fit for purpose (which is what I expect this government is trying to implement
Thorpe: “My understanding of deaths from respiratory illness is that it is not covid or flu that is the cause of death, it is our reaction to dealing with it that causes pneumonia. Why don’t we have a more effective treatment for pneumonia. I had a vaccination for pneumonia.”
Bacterial pneumonia, which is probably why Ivermectin is an effective treatment for “Covid”. It is mainly used to treat parasitic infections. The antiviral activity of Ivermectin has been shown against a wide range of RNA and DNA viruses, for example, dengue, Zika, yellow fever and others. So, it is probably also effective as an antibiotic against pneumonia, but, being cheap, is not normally used as such because of the use of more expensive, patented antibiotics. For some reason, if it is cheap or generic, Big Pharma seems to lose interest in supplying it.
The way in which the use of Ivermectin has been rejected outright by Big Pharma as a treatment for Covid, denigrating it as a treatment for horse parasites, when it is legally and widely used to treat humans for a wide range of parasitic and other health conditions, is highly suspicious. Moreover, just mentioning the use of Ivermectin as a treatment for Covid triggered a de-platforming for providing medical misinformation.
The inventor of mRNA vaccines, Dr Robert Malone, came to fame because he was in a video discussion on the YouTube channel of Bret Weinstein (a professor of biology and podcaster)in which Malone said that the use of Ivermectin was showing encouraging results against Covid. YouTube deleted that video and Wikipedia deleted Malone’s page, which has since been reinstated due to objections from the public.
If the victims are dying from pneumonia, one of the last medical treatments that I would accept if I had pneumonia would be to be placed in a ventilator and be given oxygen because of something called Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia (VAP).
“VAP in COVID-19 patients is associated with shock, bloodstream, and polymicrobial infections.”
“Overall, almost 25% of COVID-19 patients required critical care, and, therefore, they were hospitalised in intensive care units (ICUs). Because the recurrence to mechanical ventilation is frequent, these patients are at risk of developing ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP).”
“The effects of higher levels of oxygen are uncertain, but higher levels may increase mortality and adverse effects.”
In other words, if deaths from Covid are wanted to increase the tally, putting patients in ventilators is a good way to so so. The patients will be getting high levels of oxygen but so will the pneumonia-causing bacteria.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8388913/