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Are the experts doing a “reverse ferret”?

(Friday blog – Chinese plague day 30)

Firstly, I hope you all watched the film “Contagion” on TV2 yesterday evening at 21.00h. If you didn’t see it, the film was about a virus which originated in China when a bat infected a pig and then quickly spread around the world from people travelling. The virus led to many deaths from respiratory failure and encephalitis. The announcer on TV2 referred to the film as being “science fiction”. But the events of the film and what is now happening with the Chinese Covid-19 plague are remarkably similar. If you didn’t see “Contagion”, I strongly advise you try to.

Are the experts doing a “reverse ferret”?

A reverse ferret is a phrase used predominantly within the British media to describe a sudden reversal in an organisation’s editorial or political line on a certain issue. Generally, this will involve no acknowledgement of the previous position

From what I understand, much of the British Government’s policy for dealing with the Chinese plague has been informed by a group at Imperial College London. (But Imperial College, please don’t sue me if I’m wrong with what I write below as I’m just an ignorant, insignificant, crazed blogger)

The first announcement from this group was that Covid-19 was: ‘the most serious public health threat seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 Spanish flu, which is estimated to have killed at least 50 million people worldwide’.

In the early stages of the Chinese Covid-19 plague, the Government was warned that UK deaths would be 510,000 if the virus went unchecked …but would lower to 250,000 if the UK implemented mitigation strategies.

Then by March 16, Imperial College announced that the Government’s new coronavirus strategy – a total lockdown – could cut UK deaths from Covid-19 to “a few thousands or tens of thousands” through to the autumn. One of the Imperial College team suggested the figure of 20,000 – slightly higher than the 17,000 deaths on average from the flu over the last five years.

Downgrading the Chinese plague?

But you probably knew all that already. What you might not have known was that, just as the UK Government was implementing the lockdown and crashing our economy, it also downgraded the seriousness of the threat posed by the Chinese Wuhan plague.

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID) in the UK. The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This advice was changed a week ago when the Government downgraded the Chinese plague from being a HCID.

Here’s a link to the official Government website:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

In the UK, a HCID is defined according to the following criteria:

  • acute infectious disease
  • typically has a high case-fatality rate
  • may not have effective prophylaxis or treatment
  • often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly
  • ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings
  • requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely

As far as I’m aware, none of the mainstream media have reported this positive development. Why not? Because it doesn’t fit into their “we’re all going to die shock horror” narrative? The last thing the media wants is some good news.

All this asks the question whether a better strategy would have been to isolate all those over 65 and all those who had comorbidities making them vulnerable to the Chinese plague, but to have let the rest of the economy continue as normal allowing infections to build herd immunity? However, with the media – particularly the UK-hating BBC, UK-loathing C4 News and (IMHO) shouty idiots like Piers Moron – screaming for action, I can understand why the Government felt pushed into drastic action – crashing the economy – which may lead to the cure being worse than the disease.

Will it all be over by the summer?

In their desperate attempts to further their own lousy careers, many in the media are claiming that the lockdown will have to last 12 months or 18 months or whatever figure they can think of. But with 80% or more of infections being mild and with a likely medical treatment being probably less than a month away, it could be the case that restrictions of movement and economic activity can gradually be lifted within weeks rather than months.

From the little I understand, the Chinese plague is a bioengineered variant of a coronavirus blended with some parts of HIV (courtesy of the Wuhan Institute of Virology) and so a cocktail of anti-virals and anti-HIV drugs may cure most serious cases?

I hope you haven’t forgotten Saint Greta

One person who has been seriously affected by the Chinese Wuhan plague is none other than the world’s greatest scientist and climatologist – Saint Greta the Gormless. Suddenly, after being the centre of world media attention with her fake claims of imminent climate catastrophe, a real problem (the Chinese plague) has caused media attention to move on. This has left Saint Greta the psychologically disturbed suffering from acute Media Attention Deprivation syndrome (MAD).

Desperate to be the centre of attention again, Saint Greta the Crazy has popped up to claim that she has had the Chinese Wuhan plague. But my understanding is that it has been a particularly cold winter in Sweden this year (in spite of Saint Greta’s warning of the Earth being on fire) and so Saint Greta probably had a bit of a cold.

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