David Craig, on July 4th, 2013As we get nearer to the 2015 General Election, a constant message we’ll be getting from the panicking Tories is that voting for UKIP will just allow Labour to win. But should we believe this? Or are the Tories lying to frighten us�in the hope of�saving their own incompetent, expenses-fiddling, financially-incontinent, economically-illiterate skins?
A psephologist (I forget which one) has been psephologising (or whatever it is that psephologists do). Anyway, by analysing the split of votes across constituencies, this psephologist has come up with the following chart (click on chart to see more clearly):
In the left-hand four columns, the chart suggests various percentages of the vote that might be achieved by the four main parties. In the right-hand four columns it shows how many seats each party would win.
If UKIP get around 16% of the vote, then they’ll only get one or maybe two seats at Westminster. This is, of course, because we have a first-past-the-post electoral system�rather than proportional representation.
But were UKIP’s vote to go above 22%, almost miraculous things start to happen. At 24% of the vote, UKIP could win 38 seats: with 26% they’d win about 70 seats: and if they could achieve 28% of the vote, UKIP could capture around 117 seats – meaning that no party could govern without UKIP’s help.
Most political journalists and polling companies like YouGov (run by the IMHO pro-Labour Peter Kellner whose wife is Baroness “the pig” Ashton) are keen to put UKIP down and suggest that voting for UKIP is wasting your vote.
But there is another scenario. UKIP are already polling around 16% of the vote. In the 2014 EU elections, UKIP will probably emerge as the winning party. This will give them a huge boost in time for the 2015 General Election. If UKIP can just push their share of the vote up to above 25%, they’ll be the new power-brokers at Westminster.
No wonder the useless Tories, waste-of-skin LibDems and union glove-puppet Labour are running scared.
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Good stuff David.
I must admit that, until recently, whilst I have every intention of voting for UKIP, I was starting to feel that it was simply splitting the Conservative vote and, for all their failings, I would always rather see a Tory govt than a Labour one.
However, my position has softened somewhat on that score, especially after last week’s spending review.
Let us assume that voting UKIP only splits the vote meaning that Labour get in (UKIP could still end up with a few seats which will still be a positive) but… how much damage can a Labour government do?
We’re all afraid that they will spend, spend, spend but there’s no money left to spend, spend, spend.
It seems to me that they will be more or less forced to continue with the measures that the Tories leave behind.
So, I’ll be voting UKIP. Not as a protest, not as a “tactic” but because I think that they’re the only party that seem to be inhabiting the same planet as the rest of us at the moment.
I’ll be voting UKIP simply because membership of the EU is immoral and unconstitutional. We must leave.
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Voting for the lesser of the FibLabCon evils is still a vote for evil! FibLabCon deserve a bloody nose and a kick in the ballots. I joined UKIP and will be voting for them at every opportunity.
NuLab/BluLab there is no difference. I’m voting Ukip.
If the last few elections have been anything to go by, UKIP are splitting everybody’s vote… Including those that haven’t voted for more than ten years.
In South Shields (Dave Militante) where 52% of votes cast were of the postal kind… Labour won… They have never lost here!
But UKIP were second, with 26% of the vote… 21% were former Tory voters, 16% were former Labour voters, somewhere around 12% had not voted for more than ten years…
It was a similar situation in Eastleigh, where they also came second.
Onwards and upwards… Onwards and upwards!