March 2023
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Will Russia and China be at each other’s throats one day?

weekend blog

For several years, I have been writing about the utter stupidity of the West alienating Russia by absorbing ever more former Warsaw Pact countries into NATO thus moving NATO tanks, troops and missiles ever closer to Russia’s borders. This is especially stupid because we have been pushing Russia into the arms of our real enemy, China. Yet most Russians are like us and like us. They tend not to like the Chinese.

For the moment, China and Russia are uniting against the West. But soon China and Russia may be at each other’s throats.

Let me explain my crazed theory

Siberia will be the flashpoint

Siberia has a 2,738 miles border with China. This is the legacy of the Convention of Peking of 1860 and other unequal pacts between a strong, expanding Russia and a weakened China after the Second Opium War. (Other European powers similarly encroached upon China, but from the south. Hence the former British foothold in Hong Kong, for example.) This was during the period the Chinese call “the hundred years of national humiliation” – the term used in China to describe the period of intervention and subjugation of the Qing dynasty and the Republic of China by Western powers and Japan from 1839 to 1949.

It’s all about demographics

Now let’s look at population densities. China’s is 149 people per km2. I was surprised at how low this was given that there are around 1.35 billion Chinese. Just to put this in context, the UK’s population density is 277 ppl/km2, Germany’s is 233 ppl/km2 and the Netherlands is much higher at 457 ppl/km2. Russia’s population density is just 9 ppl/km2. Things get more interesting when you look at Siberia with a population density of just 3 ppl/km2.

The 1.35 billion Chinese people south of the border outnumber Russia’s 144 million almost 10 to 1. The discrepancy is even starker for Siberia on its own, home to barely 38 million people, and especially the border area, where only 6 million Russians face over 90 million Chinese.

Moreover, the population of Siberia I believe is gradually decreasing as younger Russians move West for jobs.

Nature abhors a vacuum

In terms of population, Siberia is almost a vacuum. And I’m sure you all know that nature abhors a vacuum.

As recently as 1969, Russian and Chinese troops harassed each other across the border in northeast China. This eventually escalated into a shooting match on March 2 and 15, resulting in heavy casualties. Although a shooting war over such matters presently appears remote, complaints over Chinese immigration in Siberia continue today. Those who are interested can even view on Amazon a 2018 documentary titled “When Siberia Will be Chinese”.

A possible scenario?

Siberia is rich in natural resources. The situation between Russian and China reminds me of a line from the first paragraph from H.G. Wells’s 1898 novel “THE WAR OF THE WORLDS”: “Yet across the gulf of space, minds that are to our minds as ours are to those of the beasts that perish, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarded this earth with envious eyes, and slowly and surely drew their plans against us.”

I suggest that’s how China’s leaders view resource-rich, underpopulated Siberia.

Increasingly Chinese companies are moving into Siberia to mine Siberia’s resources. With them they bring Chinese workers both to work in their mines and to build infrastructure like roads and railway lines. Moreover, with the influx of Chinese workers comes an influx of Chinese businesses.

Eventually the local Russians start to feel embittered against the Chinese. Fights begin to break out between disaffected Russian youths and Chinese workers. Then there are anti-Chinese riots and several Chinese business are burnt down and Chinese injured.

This causes the Chinese government to send in “police” (actually Chinese soldiers disguised as police) to protect Chinese workers.

Then …………. Who knows?

For the moment, China is more concerned with capturing Taiwan and expanding its territory in the South China Sea. But in the future, China may decide to right the wrongs of the “the hundred years of national humiliation” by taking a chunk of Siberia back from Russia.

4 comments to Will Russia and China be at each other’s throats one day?

  • twi5ted

    China so far tends to use money rather than bombs. But in a future post growth world with a new iron curtain its likely these two countries, both with declining populations, may not have a need to expand further.

    Particularly, as a corrupt and decadent west chases unicorns whilst the population freezes and starves. Sitting back with a vast chest of natural resources whilst the west collapses is a very Chinese long game which could play out over a generation.

    Chinese concept of cycles apparently based around Jupiter and 12 years. Vs a lunar year in the west. They are still seeking revenge from the opium wars and given the fifth columnists that appear to be pushing the west to self destruct they must be pretty happy with how its going so far.

  • Ed P

    China and Russia together hold most of the earth’s presently-desirable resources, so will stand together against the rest of the world. Invading Siberia would be counter-productive presently.
    America is in terminal decline, Africa has vast problems ahead feeding its growing (and mainly unproductive) populations & Europe has gone mad/green.
    The petrodollar is failing and the Yuan will be the Reserve Currency soon, with SWIFT replaced by CIPS.
    C&R have the time and resources to disassociate themselves from these imploding societies. Or soon to buy up the best bits at knockdown prices.

  • A Thorpe

    Isn’t it to do with strength and weakness and what is to be gained? When the Romans came to Britain they ignored Scotland. It wasn’t worth the effort and it had nothing they wanted. Eventually, Rome weakened as the size of the state grew and the barbarians moved in. Roman civilisation was so advanced that when it collapsed Europe took about 1000 years to recover. China and Japan both suffered decline when they isolated themselves from trade. History is about the rise and decline of nations and it seems to be completely unpredictable. There hasn’t been a steady improvement in living standards as many of the young in the west believe and it can easily reverse.

    Geography has played a huge part in the advancement of human civilisation. In Europe the many navigable rivers were a big factor allowing movement of people and goods. Trade with Asia was easier because it was essentially east-west in a similar climate. In the Americas is was north to south and more difficult. Modern transport changed that but geography is again important. Europe is now at a disadvantage because it is running out of fossil fuels and has crazy politicians obsessed with zero carbon, and they have failed to develop nuclear power. Europe is destroying itself from within. Europe also does not have other materials needed for advanced technology. The only way Europe can survive is through trade and cooperation. Instead our politicians parade around the world trading on past glories but they are empty shells and the rest of the world knows that. China and Russia have fossil energy and are not obsessed with zero carbon. The West and especially the UK has handed over manufacturing to China and we have looked on whilst it has been buying up resources around the world. Communist countries have suffered from their long term plans in the past but China has now got everything right. Europe couldn’t plan its ways out of a paper bag.

    I cannot see Russia gaining any benefit from occupying European territory, except possibly access to ice free ports. If Russia is concerned about NATO, negotiating would be a better option than occupying Ukraine. Putin isn’t giving us any clues about his intentions.

    Britain’s only strength and perhaps its weakness is nuclear weapons. We will be obliterated if they are ever used. Brexit should have been our opportunity to cooperate and trade with the world but that is never going to happen.

    Whatever happens, we the people, must accept responsibility because we elect the politicians who are destroying our lives. They always have and they always will until we have power over them.

  • Marc Ager

    Fortunately, the great pandemic con has shown us *exactly* what the west’s decadent globalist politicians are all about and getting up to.

    They believe that they will inherit planet earth, but it is the first six feet of it that they will inherit. Along with the rest of us if we allow the continuing climate emergency con and probably evermore variants and other “pandemics” to be used to put us under their control.

    In my opinion, Sir David Amess was a sacrificial lamb telling other MPs that this could be you if you step out of line.

    His killer was living in north London and was not one of his constituents, yet was allowed by his staff to get an appointment with him.

    I tried to do that once when I wasn’t satisfied with how my Tory MP was dealing with my problem and the other Tory MP I approached refused to help me out, saying that I could only appeal to my own MP.

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